Dollar Pinned Near One-Month Low Amid Subdued US Yields

FILE PHOTO: U.S. One dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

TOKYO ⸺ The dollar was pinned near a one-month low to major peers on Monday, with Treasury yields hovering near the lowest in five weeks, after the U.S. Federal Reserve reiterated its view that any spike in inflation was likely to be temporary.

The safe-haven greenback was also held down by improved risk sentiment amid a rally in global stocks to record highs.

Bitcoin nursed losses from Sunday, when it plunged by as much as 14% to $51,541, which a report attributed to news of a power outage in China. It last traded around $57,020.

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six rivals, was at 91.684, not far from the low of 91.484 marked last week, a level not seen since March 18.

The greenback bought 108.74 yen, near the lowest since March 24. 

The euro changed hands at $1.19565, near the highest since March 4.

“The fixed income market will dominate my world this week,” with the risk currently skewed to further yield declines, pressuring the dollar, Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Markets Ltd, a foreign exchange broker based in Melbourne, wrote in a client note.

Wall Street’s gains amid low volatility “should keep USD rallies contained and attract further USD sellers,” he wrote.

Benchmark 10-year yields could fall to as low as 1.47%, from around 1.56% currently, according to Weston.

Key technical points are 91.30, the March 18 low, for the dollar index, and $1.2000 for euro, which could trigger a run to $1.22, he said.

The 10-year Treasury yield sank to as low as 1.5280% last week, from a more-than-one-year high of 1.7760% at the end of last month, reducing the appeal of the United States as an investment.

The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Friday, extending a rally in global stocks. 

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on CNBC on Friday that the U.S. economy “is ready to rip” as vaccinations continue and activity picks up, but a rise in inflation is likely to be transitory, echoing comments from other Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell over the past week.

Bitcoin continued its retreat from the record high of $64,895.22 reached on April 14 with its weekend plunge. 

Data website CoinMarketCap cited a blackout in China’s Xinjiang region, which reportedly powers a lot of bitcoin mining, for the selloff.

Analysts at National Australia Bank cited “speculation in several online reports” that the U.S. Treasury may crack down on money laundering within digital currencies for the sharp move lower. 

The bitcoin rout also followed a decision on Friday by Turkey’s central bank to ban the use of cryptocurrencies for purchases.

Despite recent weakness, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency remains up 97% in 2021, after more than quadrupling last year.

Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman; Reuters


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